A 30-Year Trap: The Problem With America’s Weird Mortgages (2024)

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One big reason the U.S. housing market is broken: Owners don’t want to give up their cushy old loans.

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Buying a home was hard before the pandemic. Somehow, it keeps getting harder.

Prices, already sky-high, have gotten even higher, up nearly 40 percent over the past three years. Available homes have gotten scarcer: Listings are down nearly 20 percent over the same period. And now interest rates have soared to a 20-year high, eroding buying power without — in defiance of normal economic logic — doing much to dent prices.

None of which, of course, is a problem for people who already own homes. They have been insulated from rising interest rates and, to a degree, from rising consumer prices. Their homes are worth more than ever. Their monthly housing costs are, for the most part, locked in place.

The reason for that divide — a big part of it, anyway — is a unique, ubiquitous feature of the U.S. housing market: the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

That mortgage has been so common for so long that it can be easy to forget how strange it is. Because the interest rate is fixed, homeowners get to freeze their monthly loan payments for as much as three decades, even if inflation picks up or interest rates rise. But because most U.S. mortgages can be paid off early with no penalty, homeowners can simply refinance if rates go down. Buyers get all of the benefits of a fixed rate, with none of the risks.

“It’s a one-sided bet,” said John Y. Campbell, a Harvard economist who has argued that the 30-year mortgage contributes to inequality. “If inflation goes way up, the lenders lose and the borrowers win. Whereas if inflation goes down, the borrower just refinances.”

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A 30-Year Trap: The Problem With America’s Weird Mortgages (2024)

FAQs

Why is the 30-year mortgage a uniquely American trap? ›

Campbell, a Harvard economist who has argued that the 30-year mortgage contributes to inequality. “If inflation goes way up, the lenders lose and the borrowers win. Whereas if inflation goes down, the borrower just refinances.” This isn't how things work elsewhere in the world.

Why does America have 30-year fixed mortgage rates? ›

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage owes its existence to government actions to remedy dislocations in the mortgage market. The process started during the Great Depression, when the federal government created the Home Owner's Loan Corporation (HOLC) to buy defaulted mortgages and reinstate them.

What happens to my mortgage if the economy collapses? ›

What Happens To Your Mortgage Rates & Payments? If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, then your monthly payments will remain the same, which can be beneficial in a high-inflation environment. However, if you have an adjustable-rate mortgage, expect your payments to increase.

What percentage of American homeowners do not have a mortgage? ›

Nearly 40% of U.S. homes are mortgage-free, census shows.

Do the majority of Americans take out 30yr mortgages? ›

By 2021, only 2.2% of mortgage applications were for adjustable-rate mortgages, while in 2022 85% of mortgages were fixed 30-year. So it is no surprise that, according to Redfin , 90% of households are paying less than current rates on their mortgage.

Is the US the only country with 30 year mortgages? ›

Central bank rate hikes in other countries including Australia and the U.K. hit household budgets harder and faster because variable-rate mortgages are standard. The U.S. is the only country where a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is standard, and is the result of government policy to encourage home ownership.

What countries have the most variable-rate mortgages? ›

Australia, Ireland, Korea, Spain and the United Kingdom (U.K.) are dominated by variable-rate mortgages often with a short- term initial fixed rate. Designs vary — in Australia, Ireland and the U.K. the standard variable-rate mortgage has a rate set by the lender at its discretion (a reviewable-rate loan).

What is the highest mortgage rates have ever been in the US? ›

Interest rates reached their highest point in modern history in October 1981 when they peaked at 18.63%, according to the Freddie Mac data. Fixed mortgage rates declined from there, but they finished the decade at around 10%.

At what age should you no longer have a mortgage? ›

To O'Leary, debt is the enemy of any financial plan — even the so-called “good debt” of a mortgage. According to him, your best chance for long-term financial success lies in getting out from under your mortgage by age 45.

How much is a 30-year mortgage payment for $200000? ›

Term Length And A $200K Mortgage

Let's look at an example of how your loan term affects your mortgage payment. At a 7% interest rate, a 30-year fixed $200K mortgage has a monthly payment amount of $1,331, while a 15-year fixed $200K mortgage at the same interest rate has a monthly payment amount of $1,798.

Is 50 too old for a 30-year mortgage? ›

If you can demonstrate an ability to repay the loan before you're 75 years old, they will consider your application no matter your age! For example, if you needed to borrow $300,000 and were 50 years old, the standard 30-year mortgage term could be reduced to 25 years and your loan would be approved.

Is it better to have cash or property in a recession? ›

Cash: Offers liquidity, allowing you to cover expenses or seize investment opportunities. Property: Can provide rental income and potential long-term appreciation, but selling might be difficult during an economic downturn.

What not to buy during a recession? ›

Don't: Take On High-Interest Debt

It's best to avoid racking up high-interest debt during a recession. In fact, the smart move is to slash high-interest debt so you've got more cash on hand. Chances are your highest-interest debt is credit card debt.

Is it better to pay off mortgage in a recession? ›

Most homeowners would be wise to stay the course by continuing to pay down the mortgage monthly rather than in a lump sum, says Greg McBride, Bankrate's chief financial analyst. “In a recession, you want to preserve liquidity, not restrict it,” says McBride. “Paying down the mortgage restricts your liquidity.”

Do other countries have 30 year mortgages? ›

The U.S. is the only country where a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is standard, and is the result of government policy to encourage home ownership.

What is the mortgage trap? ›

As the name suggests it is a situation where homeowners are 'trapped' in their existing mortgage, unable to switch to a deal with better terms, or rates.

Why would someone choose a 30 year mortgage? ›

A 30-year fixed-rate loan is predictable, and gives you the “sleep well advantage.” Knowing your payment will remain consistent makes things a little less stressful, and makes it easier to make other financial plans. With this loan, you know that your monthly payment will always be $X.

Why do people take out 30 year mortgages? ›

A 30-year mortgage can make your monthly payments more affordable. While monthly payments on a 15-year mortgage are higher, the cost of the loan is less in the long run.

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